Market Move
Where bitcoin went from markets like today's: the nearest weeks in its history, the paths they took, and five scenarios with their odds for the next three months, six months and year.This is statistics about the past, not financial advice. The method has been right and wrong before; the backtest at the bottom says how often.
Price of 20 Oct 2026. Today's fingerprint read on 13 Oct 2026.
Most likely
Rocket38% of the twins
Median price in 1 year
$129,435+58%
80% of the twins ended between
$38,322 – $187,972−53% … +129%
Chance of ending higher
55%67% for any week in history
40 twin weeks from 9 separate stretches of history, since 2013.
The fan
Bitcoin's recent weekly closes, then where the twins' paths lead from today's price.
Odds
Rocket
38%A parabolic run, the kind that tops a cycle.
Any week in history: 39% · 15 twins
- Where these twins ended (middle half)
- $173,311 – $189,414
- Median $178,648 (+118%)
- Deepest dip on the way
- −15%
- Lowest around week 7, highest around week 47
Like: 25 Apr 2023 +135%, 29 Dec 2015 +115%, 14 Jul 2015 +131%
What set these twins apart (scores 0–100)
- M2 money supply, year on year 10 in these twins, 49 in the rest. Today: 39.
- Fed balance sheet, 26 weeks 16 in these twins, 43 in the rest. Today: 58.
- Halving cycle 77 in these twins, 55 in the rest. Today: 62.
Bull
14%A steady climb to higher prices.
Any week in history: 22% · 7 twins
- Where these twins ended (middle half)
- $135,646 – $152,740
- Median $145,172 (+77%)
- Deepest dip on the way
- −16%
- Lowest around week 8, highest around week 51
Like: 08 Dec 2015 +84%, 11 Jul 2023 +89%, 12 Nov 2019 +74%
What set these twins apart (scores 0–100)
- Halving cycle 79 in these twins, 61 in the rest. Today: 62.
- 4-week move 69 in these twins, 56 in the rest. Today: 64.
- Fed balance sheet, 26 weeks 22 in these twins, 35 in the rest. Today: 58.
Sideways
10%A range with no winner either way.
Any week in history: 13% · 5 twins
- Where these twins ended (middle half)
- $71,750 – $101,244
- Median $75,533 (−8%)
- Deepest dip on the way
- −49%
- Lowest around week 23, highest around week 0
Like: 07 Jun 2022 −12%, 09 Oct 2018 +24%, 15 May 2018 −6%
What set these twins apart (scores 0–100)
- 13-week move 25 in these twins, 44 in the rest. Today: 61.
- 26-week move 18 in these twins, 37 in the rest. Today: 38.
- US dollar, 13 weeks 71 in these twins, 52 in the rest. Today: 58.
Bear
24%A real decline that stops short of a crash.
Any week in history: 14% · 7 twins
- Where these twins ended (middle half)
- $47,401 – $55,583
- Median $50,993 (−38%)
- Deepest dip on the way
- −63%
- Lowest around week 33, highest around week 0
Like: 05 Apr 2022 −38%, 08 May 2018 −37%
What set these twins apart (scores 0–100)
- M2 money supply, year on year 72 in these twins, 22 in the rest. Today: 39.
- Fed balance sheet, 26 weeks 55 in these twins, 26 in the rest. Today: 58.
- Below the all-time high 69 in these twins, 45 in the rest. Today: 68.
Capitulation
14%A crash, the fall that ends a cycle.
Any week in history: 12% · 6 twins
- Where these twins ended (middle half)
- $32,715 – $38,690
- Median $36,843 (−55%)
- Deepest dip on the way
- −66%
- Lowest around week 27, highest around week 0
Like: 15 Jul 2014 −54%, 28 Dec 2021 −65%
What set these twins apart (scores 0–100)
- 10-year yield, 13 weeks 44 in these twins, 81 in the rest. Today: 91.
- 26-week move 15 in these twins, 38 in the rest. Today: 38.
- Halving cycle 44 in these twins, 66 in the rest. Today: 62.
At 1 year: rocket above +100%, bull above +25%, sideways down to −20%, bear down to −50%, capitulation below that.
Today's fingerprint
Thirteen readings in four groups, each scored 0–100 against its own past up to that week. The twins are the past weeks nearest on all four groups at once.
Cycle clock
- Halving cycleweek 130 of the cycle
- Below the all-time high−33%
On-chain
- Valuation signals52
- Holder signals32
- Profit signals45
- Cycle signals26
Momentum
- 4-week move+10%
- 13-week move+28%
- 26-week move+12%
Macro
- US dollar, 13 weeks+1%
- 10-year yield, 13 weeks+0.62 pp
- M2 money supply, year on year+5%
- Fed balance sheet, 26 weeks+1%
Patterns
Eleven things that move bitcoin: where each stands today, and what followed when it stood there before, against every other week.
| Driver | Today | When it stood here | Every other week | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months later | 1 year later | 3 months later | 1 year later | ||
| Halving cyclesince 2010 | Year 3 after the halving214 weeks, 5 stretches | +2%53% higher | +71%85% higher | +18%63% higher | +111%68% higher |
| Signal boardsince 2012 | Bearish271 weeks, 32 stretches | +11%60% higher | +115%79% higher | +9%58% higher | +51%65% higher |
| MVRV Z-scoresince 2012 | Bearish207 weeks, 35 stretches | +1%52% higher | +111%79% higher | +13%61% higher | +65%66% higher |
| 200-week averagesince 2014 | Price above it579 weeks, 12 stretches | +5%55% higher | +62%67% higher | +25%74% higher | +122%100% higher |
| Distance from the highsince 2010 | 30–50% below the high183 weeks, 37 stretches | +7%55% higher | +124%58% higher | +13%62% higher | +89%75% higher |
| US dollarsince 2010 | Rising over 13 weeks463 weeks, 46 stretches | +1%51% higher | +67%72% higher | +30%72% higher | +146%72% higher |
| 10-year yieldsince 2010 | Rising over 13 weeks422 weeks, 51 stretches | +8%57% higher | +96%71% higher | +20%64% higher | +90%73% higher |
| M2 growthsince 2010 | Growth slowing378 weeks, 16 stretches | +8%57% higher | +86%68% higher | +17%63% higher | +94%74% higher |
| Fed balance sheetsince 2010 | Growing over 26 weeks432 weeks, 14 stretches | +16%58% higher | +104%66% higher | +11%63% higher | +88%78% higher |
| Time of yearsince 2010 | October71 weeks, 16 stretches | +39%69% higher | +92%83% higher | +12%60% higher | +93%71% higher |
| Fear & Greedsince 2018 | Neutral63 weeks, 32 stretches | +8%59% higher | +100%75% higher | +3%53% higher | +35%64% higher |
The nearest weeks in history
The ten past weeks most like today, and what bitcoin did after each.
| Week | Likeness | Price then | After 3 months | After 6 months | After 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Apr 2022 | 83% | $45,508 | −56% | −55% | −38% |
| 29 Mar 2022 | 82% | $47,448 | −57% | −60% | −43% |
| 12 Apr 2022 | 81% | $40,102 | −52% | −52% | −25% |
| 22 Mar 2022 | 81% | $42,373 | −51% | −55% | −33% |
| 08 Dec 2015 | 79% | $414 | 0% | +40% | +84% |
| 07 Jun 2022 | 79% | $31,118 | −40% | −45% | −12% |
| 25 Apr 2023 | 79% | $28,302 | +3% | +20% | +135% |
| 15 Jul 2014 | 79% | $624 | −36% | −64% | −54% |
| 29 Dec 2015 | 78% | $433 | −4% | +49% | +115% |
| 02 May 2023 | 78% | $28,678 | +4% | +21% | +111% |
This cycle against the last three
Each cycle's price as a multiple of its halving-day price, week by week. The bright line is this cycle; it ends at today.
- 2012 cycle+91%
- 2016 cycle+92%
- 2020 cycle+70%
The 52 weeks after week 130
How often it was right
The same method run every fourth week since 2016, each time with only what was known that week. If the 80% band is honest, about 80% of outcomes land inside it.
Inside the 80% band
80%128 forecasts
Direction called right
74%
“Always up” would score
70%
Median miss
45%
In the news now
The last 48 hours of bitcoin headlines, sorted by theme and lean with a word list. Context only: the news has no history to learn from, so it does not enter the odds.
How this is built
Every week since 2010 gets a fingerprint of thirteen readings: where it sat in the halving cycle, how far below its high, the signal board's four categories, the price's move over 4, 13 and 26 weeks, and the dollar, the ten-year yield, M2 and the Fed's balance sheet. Each reading is a percentile against its own past up to that week, so no week is described with hindsight. M2 is read a month late and the Fed's balance sheet a week late, when they are published.
Today's fingerprint is compared with every past week whose future is already known. The forty nearest become the twins, no more than four of them from any two months, so one long quiet stretch cannot speak forty times. Nearer twins count more.
Each twin's path is scaled to today's price. Where the paths end names the scenario, and the weighted share of twins that ended there is its odds. The base rate beside it is the same share over every past week, alike or not.
Bitcoin has had four halvings, so history holds only a few cycles and the fan is wide. The news cannot enter the odds because the wire keeps no history to test it on. Nothing here is a promise.
Prices: CoinGecko. On-chain signals: Bitview. Macro: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). Fear & Greed: Alternative.me. News: the site's own wire.
Price data: Powered by CoinGecko · Data provided by CoinMarketCap.com