Mayer multiple

The line is bitcoin's price divided by its own 200-day moving average: ×1.0 means the price stands exactly on its average, ×2 twice it, ×0.5 half. The axis is linear, because the multiple is a small number.

The line is coloured by its own value: green under the average, grey around ×1, then amber, coral and crimson as it stretches. The dashed green line marks ×1.0 and the dashed red one ×2.4. The scale on the right reads the colour, and hovering shows the multiple, whether it is below the 200-day average, mid-range or historically stretched, the date, and bitcoin's price that day.

The chart opens on the last four years, one halving cycle; the chips choose one, two or eight years, or the whole record. The earliest years reach multiples far above anything since, so on the whole record the recent cycles sit low on the plot.

The 200-day moving average is the mean of the last 200 daily closes, and the multiple is the day's close divided by it. Perly computes both from its own daily record, each close dated to the day it was made. The multiple needs 200 days of history, so it begins in early 2011.

Trace Mayer introduced the multiple, and with it the observation that buying bitcoin when the multiple was above 2.4 had historically done worse over the long run than buying below it. The red line marks that level. It is a statement about the record he studied, drawn here as a landmark; the chart does not recommend buying or selling at any multiple.

The multiple's highest readings came early, and the peaks of 2013, 2017 and 2021 each came in lower than the one before. They did not always fall on the price's top: the cycle that ended in 2015 peaked in April 2013, not at the December top, and 2021's peak came in January. The troughs from 2011 to 2022 were all well under 1.

Because the 200-day average trails the price, the multiple sinks under 1 in every sustained fall and climbs fastest early in a rally, before the average has caught up.